The Kelly Criterion is considered one of the most effective capital management methods in today’s betting market. However, many players are still unfamiliar with this method and its benefits. In this article, our experts will share the most specific way to minimize risks while engaging in online betting. Let’s delve into the Kelly Criterion in soccer betting at current bookmakers.
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History of the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion was developed in the 1956 by John L. Kelly to ensure optimal growth of betting funds. Initially, this formula was invented to support the AT&T company. Later on, it expanded to various fields and became known as one of the most effective financial management methods. It was then adapted to other areas, including horse racing.
This formula requires meticulous calculation and patience to achieve long-term effectiveness. Over the years, the Kelly Criterion took the following form:
Bet Amount = ((Betting Odds x Winning Probability) – 1) / (Betting Odds – 1) x 100
Evaluating the Kelly Criterion in Betting
Effectively manages capital before and during betting activities.
Calculates a reasonable betting amount based on winning and losing probabilities and bookmakers’ odds.
Reduces risks and allows you to win more bets.
Provides a comprehensive overview of the match before making a betting decision.
Easily analyzes statistical data and formulates a rational betting strategy.
While it helps manage betting funds, it’s not 100% accurate.
Players need to accurately determine the winning probability of the match they want to bet on.
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Applying the Kelly Criterion in Betting
The Kelly Criterion can be used in all types of games and at any bookmaker. For instance, in a match between Watford vs. Chelsea, if you bet on Watford to win, you can apply the following formula:
Total Bet Amount: $100
Watford’s Winning Probability: 60%
Betting Odds: 1.93
Now, using the Kelly Criterion:
Betting Percentage = ((((1.93 – 60%) – 1) / (1.93 – 1)) * 100 = 16.99%
Note: If this percentage is negative, it may be due to a low winning probability for the match. In this case, you can choose to bet on the opponent or avoid betting on that match.
Different Versions of the Kelly Criterion in Betting
Full Kelly: This strategy is quite aggressive, allowing players to bet up to 50% of their bankroll, leading to quick wins but also higher risks of losses.
Constant Kelly: Similar to Full Kelly, but instead of providing varying percentages, it suggests a fixed betting percentage. For example, it might recommend a constant 15% betting amount instead of displaying higher or lower percentages.
Fractional Kelly: Players can engage in betting a certain portion of their bankroll, such as 50% (Half Kelly), 25% (1/4 Kelly), or any desired fraction.
By providing analytical indicators, players can understand the figures and easily grasp bookmakers’ odds. The Kelly Criterion reflects the level of risk in each match and the disparities among odds.
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We hope this article has provided you with a clearer understanding of the Kelly Criterion in soccer betting and how to apply it effectively. Additionally, players should also explore effective soccer betting tips from experts to ensure consistent victories.